Title: India: Outdated Military Machine in for a Makeover
Author:
Publication: Stratfor.com
Date: Nov 6, 2000
URL: http://www.stratfor.com/home/Sample/0011060005.htm
The Indian government may introduce a new position into their armed forces – the Chief of Defense Staff. The new position is an integral part of imminent reforms that will dramatically change the structure of Indian armed forces, their high command and military intelligence. In shifting operational control over nuclear weapons to the military, the Indian military will have the opportunity to work on nuclear planning. China and Pakistan will likely become concerned about this move, which in the future might change the regional balance of power.
India is making dramatic changes to its military structure. The Group of Ministers, composed of Defense Minister George Fernandes, Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh, Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha and representatives of other government agencies, is discussing the creation of the new position of Chief of Defense Staff, reported the Hindustan Times Nov. 1. The new position introduces an important facet for reforming the structure of the outdated Indian military machine.
To date, India remains the only power among world security heavyweights that does not have an integrated system of high command. For example, the United States has the Joint Chiefs of Staff, while Russia has the Chief of General Staff. Also, India has never had an integrated military intelligence.
Serious shortcomings in the old Indian command and intelligence system became evident during last year’s conflict with Pakistan-backed guerrillas, who invaded the Indian territory in Kashmir. The different intelligence agencies – acting independently of each other – failed to detect Islamic guerrillas making preparations, invading and fortifying their positions in the Kargill Range. The Indian army and air force failed to coordinate their actions; the troops could not use Indian domination in the air to its full extent.
In order to tackle these problems, the Group of Ministers created task forces on intelligence, internal security, higher defense management and border management. They will submit their recommendations to the Indian government for final approval Nov. 16.
First, command structures of all three services – the army, air force and navy – will be subordinate to the Chief of Defense Staff, providing greater integration between the Indian Ministry of Defense and service headquarters. As reported, the CDS will have the unique position of offering "single point military advice" to the defense minister. The CDS will also have a deputy, Vice Chief of the Defense Staff, who will be in charge of long-term planning and lead the Vice Chiefs of Staff Committee.
Second, the task forces recommend a total revamp of the intelligence structure and the formation of a national intelligence board. A new Defense Intelligence Agency will be created, combining all military intelligence efforts. Its director will report to the CDS. For the first time in its history, India will have a fully integrated military intelligence system.
Third, the CDS will control the Indian strategic forces, including delivery vehicles. In other words, while three service chiefs of staff will be heading conventional forces, the CDS will be in charge of planning, developing and, if a political decision is made by the Indian government, using the nuclear weapons. This differs dramatically from the current situation in which the Indian military has no access to nuclear weapons, even in terms of strategic nuclear planning.
After the reform is implemented, the government will retain full political control over nuclear weapons use. But operational control regarding nuclear planning will be shifted to the military. Thus, India follows in the footsteps of all other nuclear powers that already have a similar structure.
Implementing a structural military reform in India will significantly enhance the combat potential of the Indian armed forces. In particular, the reform will increase their strategic and intelligence capabilities.
Shifting operational control over nuclear weapons to the military implies India intends to retain its nuclear capability. It is unlikely to lead to the end of the self-imposed moratorium on India's nuclear tests in the foreseeable future. But it means India will be firm in withstanding international pressure to give up its nuclear weapons and sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Having the military engaged in nuclear planning is a natural move for the nuclear power.
China and Pakistan are likely to become concerned about this move, though they both already have their general staffs working on nuclear planning. Thus, regarding the military's operational control over nuclear weapons, India is attempting to achieve parity. This development will not change the regional balance of power in the near future. But in the more distant future, as India’s conventional capabilities grow and its military develops operational plans for using nuclear weapons, India's military may achieve superiority over Pakistan and diminish the gap with China.
Washington’s immediate concerns with Indian high command gaining operational control over nuclear weapons will lie in the field of proliferation: Such a move will show the United States that India is not going to abandon its nuclear capability. Russia, due to the long-term alliance with India, will not be worried.